AV would have given LibDems real choice of coalition partner

... or so the Guardian headline reads in reporting the findings of a University of Essex study:

The Liberal Democrats would have had greater freedom to choose whether to form a majority coalition with either the Conservatives or Labour if the last election had been held under the alternative vote system, according to research conducted for the University of Essex.

Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister, is due to answer questions today on the coalition's plans to stage a referendum on AV next May, with some backbench Tories concerned that the poll will prevent the Conservatives governing alone again. He is due to answer questions on two constitutional reform bills to be published in the next fortnight.

Clegg told the Guardian last week that he expected coalitions to become a near permanent feature of the political landscape as old tribal loyalties break down.

The research, the British Election Study (BES), suggests AV would have given the Tories 283 seats (down 22), Labour 248 (down 10) and the Lib Dems 89 (up 32). The Lib Dems would have obtained their additional seats at the expense of both the other parties.

David Sanders, professor of politics at Essex, said: "This outcome would have radically changed the arithmetic of post-election coalition formation. The Liberal Democrats would in effect have been able to form a majority coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives."

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