Why the Tories Didn't Win in 2010 (and may not in 2015)

Tim Bale is Professor of Politics at the University of Sussex. His book The Conservative Party: From Thatcher to Cameron is a model of contemporary history. In a short article ("Cometh the Hour") in Parliamentary Brief this month, Prof. Bale has produced a convenient encapsulation of what he believed happened (or failed to happen!) at the 2010 election:

http://www.parliamentarybrief.com/2010/10/cometh-the-hour-#all

Three paragraphs reveal the thrust of his analysis:

The key task facing Cameron when he took over in late 2005 was reassuring voters that the Conservatives could be trusted on welfare and public services.  All the market research suggested that this was the sine qua non — a necessary if not a sufficient condition — of a return to office … Just as important were the signals sent out to people working in the public sector — and not just those in the supposedly sacred ‘front line’– that the party no longer regarded them as a waste of time and taxes.

When the global financial crisis hit and Britain’s budget deficit ballooned, however, this task remained unfinished and work on it practically ceased.  Gambling on the fact that they would be given brownie points for honesty, and believing that, as the most likely next government, they should start softening up the public for inevitable spending reductions, the Tories switched from reassurance to rhetoric about the age of austerity.

This, far more than an admittedly lacklustre campaign, was what did for them at the election: Labour may have been a busted flush but it was still able to scare enough voters about the Conservative’s intentions to deny them an overall majority.

It's worth reading the entire article, particularly if you're about to trawl through Conservative Party policies and ideas (Edexcel Unit 1)... If nothing else, Professor Bale believes the imminent Comprehensive Spending Review will reveal once and for all what manner of Tory Cameron really is!