BBC: What will Wales powers referendum result mean?

BBC News Online today published a useful analysis by Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Institute of Welsh Politics, on what the significance of either a "Yes" or a "No" vote would have for Welsh politics and political devolution in the UK. As it seems likely that the Welsh electorate will indeed vote "Yes", I have placed an edited version of Prof. Scully's analysis of a "Yes" vote below:

If... Wales votes Yes, the direct result will be a substantial increase in the Welsh Assembly's legislative powers.

At present, the Assembly has powers over 20 broad policy areas, including health, education, the environment and transport, but it must ask Parliament for primary law-making powers on a case-by-case basis. If Wales votes Yes, the assembly could then pass laws without first having to gain the consent of Westminster.

What is done with those powers, though, will depend greatly on the outcome of May's election, and any coalition negotiations that may follow. Understandably, the parties will have rather different agendas and priorities.

But the implications of a Yes vote do not stop there. A substantial Yes vote would give a more general boost to the standing of the Welsh Assembly.

The outcome of the 1997 referendum, where devolution scraped through by a narrow majority on a low turnout, continues to be used by some to challenge the legitimacy of the institution. Many both inside and outside Wales took 1997 to show that the Welsh are pretty ambivalent about devolution. Survey evidence suggests that public attitudes have moved a long way since 1997 - but real votes would be much harder evidence yet.

Second, taken together, a more powerful Welsh Assembly and the Westminster government's planned reduction in Welsh MPs from 40 to 30 would likely produce a distinct shift in Wales's political centre of gravity. What goes on in London would still matter for Wales. But rather more of Welsh political life would tend to focus on Cardiff Bay.

Third, some consequences of a Yes might extend well beyond Wales. A more powerful Welsh Assembly would reduce, though not eliminate, the asymmetries in devolution across the minority nations of the UK. This might lead to a renewed focus on devolution's major remaining anomaly - the position of England.

And the boost to the standing of the Assembly and its ministers from a Yes might have consequences for Wales' weight in on-going discussions about revisions to the Barnett Formula that governs the block-grants given to the devolved bodies.