Cameron's trouble with women makes Theresa close to unsackable

The Guardian features an article today, penned by Allegra Stratton, suggesting that the Home Secretary - despite her problems this week - stands in an almost unsackable position within a male-dominated Coalition Cabinet. The article provides several useful insights into the thinking behind Prime Ministerial choice of Cabinet colleagues... Start reading ! :

This week the career of Theresa May, until now regarded as one of the cabinet's safest pair of hands, appeared in doubt as she attempted to explain exactly what she had or had not known about the relaxation of border controls. For David Cameron, the possibility of the home secretary's departure became potentially a bigger problem than Liam Fox's resignation as Defence Secretary last month. But May won't go. Nor, really, can she go.

May is close to the prime minister. Not showy nor a briefer, May embodies what the prime minister loves in his staff – discretion and loyalty. She's also central to Cameron's project – she intuitively understands the right wing of the party, something he has increasingly realised he has to, to survive. And having first coined the "Nasty Party" critique of its Conservatives, she also understands the branding problem Cameron has attempted to tackle. When, a few months ago, May blocked Downing Street's wish to make former US supercop Bill Bratton the head of Scotland Yard, May avoided Cameron's wrath. "What you have to understand about Theresa and David," said one of Cameron's staff, "is that he adores her."

An equal part of her indispensability comes from the fact she is the highest profile woman the government has, in a government that – the polls demonstrate – has turned off women voters. Women may not be persuaded a government is on their side because women front up the policies, but knowing women are party to decisions inside Whitehall might head off those own goals with women the government has repeatedly let in.

In opposition Cameron pledged that by the end of the parliament a third of his ministers would be women. Currently one-sixth are: 19 of 119. Seventeen of these are Tory and two (Sarah Teather and Lynne Featherstone) Lib Dem. There are now 41 female Tory MPs but very few of them are ready for hyper-promotion to the top of the government, and to do so would incur the wrath of male colleagues. The promotion of Chloe Smith, 29, to be economic secretary to the Treasury produced a large backbench splutter.

If May were to go Cameron would need and want to fill her shoes with a woman to ensure female representation in one of the big four jobs – Prime Minister, Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary.

The other women in the cabinet do not have unblemished records. Conservative co-Chairman Lady Warsi has impressed with her handling of the riots, and pugnacious role attacking Lib Dems throughout the AV campaign. But she has also annoyed No 10, for instance by suggesting activists weren't campaigning hard enough in the Oldham East and Saddleworth byelection.

The current Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan is impressive and smart but has already served the coalition notice she will resign if they go ahead with pushing the new high speed rail link through her Chesham and Amersham constituency in Buckinghamshire. The Welsh-born MP for Basingstoke, Maria Miller, the Minister for Disabled People, is being lined up to fill those shoes.

The Environment Secretary, Caroline Spelman, could be subbed in to May's seat but her tenure has seen the government have to retreat on a perceived sell-off of the forests. That was not wholly her fault, but nor is it the stuff of herograms and does not suggest she could withstand the home office house of horrors where there is a bad news story buried under every desk.

Cabinet newbie Justine Greening, a beneficiary of the mini-reshuffle after Fox was forced out, could be promoted from Transport Secretary quickly. But this is unlikely – it flies in the face of Cameron's own preferred strategy of letting his people bed into their job.

If necessary Michael Gove could come in to be Home Secretary and Norfolk South MP Elizabeth Truss made Education Secretary, but this would incur much ire.

The PM's problem is partly of his own making. He has been party leader nearly six years, which should be enough time to bring some women up to the necessary level such that when your big beasts like May suffer damage there are options. A decent programme of mentoring would have meant that Miller or, say, Theresa Villiers, the transport minister who was in the shadow cabinet before the election, was seen as ready by now.